Hoyas and Mountaineers square off for Big East crown
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
03/13/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big East Tournament title is up for grabs this evening, as the 22nd-ranked Georgetown Hoyas take on the seventh-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers at famed Madison Square Garden.
The Hoyas were thought to be a regular-season contender in the Big East, but the team faltered in the second half of the season and finished with a rather pedestrian 10-8 mark in-conference. However, Georgetown has certainly made believers out of skeptics with their play in this tournament, as the team has navigated the field out of the eight-seed, with impressive wins over the likes of South Florida (69-49), top-seeded Syracuse (91-84) and most recently, Marquette (80-57) in yesterday's semifinal action. The Hoyas are the most decorated team in Big East Tournament history, with seven tournament titles. The team is making its third appearance in the finals in the last four years, winning the whole thing in 2007.
Standing in Georgetown's way is West Virginia. The Mountaineers earned the three-seed and a double-bye to the quarterfinals with an impressive 13-5 league ledger. In this event, West Virginia has had its hands full, but has come out on top with thrilling victories over both Cincinnati (54-51) in the quarterfinals and Notre Dame (53-51) in the semifinals. There are seven conference members that have never won this event and West Virginia is one of them. The team did however, appear in the championship game in 2005, falling to Syracuse.
These two teams met just once this season, with West Virginia posting an 81-68 victory in Morgantown on March 1st.
The Hoyas are a physical team and have certainly displayed that in this event, running all over the opposition thus far. Center Greg Monroe is a big reason for that and he had another huge game in the win over Marquette, abusing the Golden Eagles for his 13th double-double of the season and third straight, finishing with 23 points and 11 rebounds. Three other Hoyas joined Monroe in double-figure scoring, with Chris Wright and Jason Clark pouring in 15 points apiece and Austin Freeman tacking on 12 points. Georgetown made light work of Marquette by shooting 53.6 percent from the floor, including a scorching 60 percent in the decisive second half. The Hoyas are averaging a modest 73.7 ppg on the year, but possess more than enough weapons to run the score up. Freeman currently paces the team with 16.8 ppg, but it is Monroe's presence in the middle that sets everything else up. The sophomore center is converting over 52 percent from the floor and is netting 16.2 ppg, while grabbing 9.7 rpg. Wright (14.7 ppg) and Clark (10.8 ppg) provide more than enough offensive support.
For the second straight game, West Virginia pulled off a victory in the waning moments. After a Da'Sean Butler's three-pointer with under two seconds to play decided the game against Cincinnati two days ago, it was a missed attempt by Notre Dame late that proved to be the difference in a two-point victory yesterday for WVU. Butler was once again instrumental in the win over Notre Dame, as he finished 9-of-15 from the floor for a game-high 24 points. Kevin Jones added 10 points, as West Virginia shot a solid .488 from the field, despite racking up just 53 points. The team did the rest at the defensive end, holding the streaking Irish to a mere .344 shooting effort, while outrebounding them 37-22. Much like Georgetown, West Virginia is averaging a modest 73.4 ppg on the year, despite having solid scoring depth. Butler leads four Mountaineers in double figures with 17.3 ppg. Jones (13.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and Devin Ebanks (12.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg) are a solid frontcourt duo, while Darryl Bryant (10.0 ppg) helps Butler from the perimeter.
Atlantic City, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded and 17th-ranked Temple Owls continue their run for a third straight Atlantic 10 Tournament title today, as they clash with the fifth-seeded Rhode Island Rams in the semifinals at Boardwalk Hal
<< Cougars and Miners duke it out for C-USA crown
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two programs trying to claim their first
Conference USA Tournament titles come together at the BOK Center in Tulsa, as
the top-seeded and 25th-ranked Texas-El Paso Miners clash with the seventh-
seeded Houston Couga
<< Commodores and Bulldogs do battle is SEC Tournament semifinals
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the 20th-
ranked Vanderbilt Commodores are set to collide in the semifinal round of the
2010 SEC Tournament.
Tomorrow, the winner of this contest will take on either Kentuck
<< SEC Tournament showdown pits Volunteers against Wildcats
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The semifinal round of the 2010 SEC
Tournament pits the second-ranked Kentucky Wildcats against the 15th-ranked
Tennessee Volunteers.
Up next for the winner of this game is a trip to tomorrow's championship
<< Top-seeded Duke faces upstart Miami in ACC semifinals
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fourth-ranked Duke Blue Devils are the
top seed in the 2010 ACC Tournament, and they are set to clash with the 12th-
seeded Miami-Florida Hurricanes in the semifinal round this afternoon.
The winner of t
Orem, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An automatic bid to the Collegeinsider.com Tournament is on the line tonight as the Huskies of Houston Baptist challenge the South Dakota Coyotes in the first-annual Great West Conference Tournament Championship Game
Jayhawks and Wildcats collide for Big 12 title >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter rivals meet in this evening's Big 12
Tournament Championship game, as the second-seeded and ninth-ranked Kansas
State Wildcats take aim at the top-seeded and No.1 ranked Kansas Jayhawks at
the Sprint Ce
Big Ten semifinals feature Buckeyes against Illini >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Semifinal round action in the Big Ten
Conference Tournament will begin this afternoon when the top-seeded Ohio State
Buckeyes battle the fifth-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini at Conseco
Fieldhouse.
The Fi
Bobcats battle Zips for Mid-American Conference crown >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Looking to claim their second consecutive
Mid-American Conference Tournament title, the third-seeded Akron Zips will
take the floor this evening against the ninth-seeded Ohio University Bobcats
at the Quicken Lo
Bears set sights on Bulldogs in MEAC title game >>
Winston-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Back in the title game of the Mid-Eastern
Athletic Conference Tournament for the third straight year, the Morgan State
Bears try to repeat as champions this afternoon as they tangle with South
Carolina State
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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