Mets return home to face Wainwright following disastrous trip
Baseball Betting Lines
07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a disastrous road trip, the New York Mets return home in the hopes of finding their offense. Too bad they have St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright waiting for them.
Wainwright will look to extend his scoreless innings streak this evening in the opener of a three-game series with the Mets at Citi Field.
The right-handed Wainwright has not allowed a run in his last 25 innings, including three straight scoreless outings. He has given up just one run over his last five starts, spanning 35 1/3 innings, and won four outings in a row before a no-decision versus the Phillies on Thursday.
Wainwright pitched six scoreless innings versus Philadelphia, working around six hits without a walk and six strikeouts. He is 14-5 on the season with a 1.94 earned run average and is second in the National League with wins.
The 28-year-old has lost all five of his games on the road, where he is 4-5 in 10 starts with a 2.82 ERA. After making two career relief outings versus the Mets, Wainwright started against them on April 18 and went in the distance in a victory, yielding three runs - two earned - on four hits and two walks with nine strikeouts.
Tonight, Wainwright faces a Mets team that has been held to four runs or fewer in 15 of their last 16 games and is coming off Sunday's 1-0 setback to Los Angeles that ended New York's road trip out west with a 2-9 record.
"It's frustrating right now," said the Mets' David Wright about his team's offensive struggles. "We have good at-bats but we don't see the results. We've got good pitching but we're not scoring many runs."
R.A. Dickey started for the Mets and did not allow a run over his 5 2/3 innings of work, but exited early due to a left leg injury.
New York is just 20-33 on the road this year compared to 28-17 at home, with tonight's starter going 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA in nine starts at Citi Field.
Niese has lost his last two decisions since winning five straight and got a no-decision versus the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. The 23-year-old lefty gave up three solo homers and six hits in all over five innings, striking out six.
Niese is 6-4 with a 3.54 ERA this year and will try to shake off his memory of his first and only other career start versus the Cardinals. He faced them on Aug. 5 and exited after 1 2/3 innings due to a season-ending hamstring tear.
The Cardinals will try to get to Niese early as they try for a second victory in a row after halting a three-game skid with Sunday's extra-inning win over the Cubs. Felipe Lopez hit a two-out solo homer in the 11th inning to get his team the victory, their ninth in 13 games.
"It was a 3-2 count. I was just trying to get on base," recalled Lopez. "I felt confident and [Chicago's Brian Schlitter] threw me a fastball. I put a good swing on it."
Albert Pujols also deposited a solo home run while Skip Schumaker went 4-for-4 and drove in a run.
The Cardinals won three of four at home over the Mets on April 16-18, but lost four of six in New York a season ago.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Big 12 Conference betting odds
Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.
Work left to do:
Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.
Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.
Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.