Line of Scrimmage: The T.O. Factor
Football Betting Lines
07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given their recent history of off-the-field problems, it's tempting to quip that the Cincinnati Bengals' signing of Terrell Owens is an attempt to improve the team's character.
It's natural to laugh at an organization where the imbalanced patients have run the asylum for so long, and where the man who made the Owens signing, longtime team president Mike Brown, has often seemed to be constructed with a couple fewer screws that his contemporaries around the league.
The marriage between Cincinnati and the radioactive Owens, hot on the heels of the offseason signings of Matt Jones and Pacman Jones, is more grist for the mill of those who would argue that the Bengals don't get it, and don't understand that character and chemistry are important components in the effort to win championships.
I say hogwash. Every successful NFL franchise takes chances, and if the Bengals wish to post back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since 1981-82, they know they had better do the same.
There were 12 playoff teams in 2009, and the Bengals were the 12th-best among them by the time the postseason actually hit. They peaked in Weeks 9-10, completing sweeps of the Ravens and Steelers and holding on for dear life thereafter. Cincinnati went 3-5 in its final eight games - the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs - and was outclassed by the Jets in the first round of the postseason.
Playing the same hand was not going to result in a royal flush, and Brown and head coach Marvin Lewis knew it. So, an offense that was 26th in passing in '09 sought to re-invent itself as an aerial team, with nearly every offseason move made on that side of the ball indicating that Carson Palmer will be winging it quite a bit this season.
Cincinnati signed Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones off the free agent wire, used a first-round draft pick on Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma), the top tight end in the draft, and followed up two rounds later by selecting Texas star Jordan Shipley (3rd Round, Texas). Though the offensive line remains something of a question mark after struggling to protect the plodding Palmer at times in 2009, there is hope that last year's lottery pick, tackle Andre Smith, will get in shape and be a major difference-maker up front.
In a division where the Steelers are never down long, the Ravens made similar aggressive moves (Anquan Boldin, Donte' Stallworth) with an eye on contending for a Super Bowl, and the Browns appear ready to get off the mat, Cincinnati has done exactly what was prudent for its survival.
The move to sign Owens, however controversial, was of a piece with the design of the larger blueprint. From a football standpoint, the Bengals are insulating themselves from the distinct possibility that Bryant, who has really only had one great season since entering the league in 2002, won't be sufficiently recovered from offseason knee surgery. They can hardly count on the troubled Matt Jones, who isn't even a cinch to make the team, and younger players like Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and Shipley aren't going to scare opposing defensive coordinators the way Owens will.
Though the popular sentiment is that the 36-year-old Owens is in decline, it's important to note that he's only two years removed from a 1,000-yard, 10- touchdown season with the Cowboys. Last year in Buffalo, where the Bills had major quarterback problems and an offensive line that couldn't even enable the receivers to get out of their breaks, Owens still had 829 yards and scored six touchdowns. The guy keeps his body fine-tuned and will work hard, that much is a given.
Of course, we all know that work habits and the attention the six-time Pro Bowler commands on the field have never been the prevailing issues. What everyone wants to know is how such a hyper-sensitive narcissist is going to co- exist with his long-lost emotional twin, Chad Ochocinco, how Owens is going to react toward Palmer or offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski when he doesn't get enough touches in a given game, and how he'll handle a losing streak should one arise.
Given that Owens is a future Hall of Famer who is nonetheless playing for his fifth team in the past eight years, you can pretty much set your watch for the headline-grabbing sound byte or sideline tantrum to come. With the one-year deal they gave him, the Bengals are gambling that he'll keep the antics to a level that will enable him to return in 2011.
In light of his history, we know that the odds of things working out between Owens and the Bengals long-term are prohibitive. But in light of the checkered history of the Cincinnati Bengals, sitting on the platform and watching the train roll by isn't any more attractive an option.
West Palm Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins reportedly handed kicker Dan Carpenter a three-year contract extension Wednesday. The Palm Beach Post reports the pact runs through the 2013 season and is worth $6.205 million. The
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Philadelphia, PA - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Your average human being doesn't stand
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
TORONTO ARGONAUTS (3-1) AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES (3-1)
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Devils avoid arbitration with Fraser >>
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils have avoided arbitration
with defenseman Mark Fraser and signed him to a one-year contract.
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Fraser had three goals and three assists in 61 games
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says they could even come from the east or west, if that were possible.
No matter the
Ruggeri helps save Argentina >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If Argentina lifts the World Cup four
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MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South
In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.